Economic growth, transport accessibility and regional equity impacts of high-speed railways in Italy: ten years ex post evaluation and future perspectives

The deployment of high-speed rail (HSR) services in the recent decades has been, arguably, the most significant innovation for intercity travel around the globe. HSR has brought impacts which have been widely studied in different countries in relation to the different socioeconomic, territorial and transport characteristics. This paper analyses the economic growth, the transport accessibility and the social impacts observed in Italy after ten years of HSR operation, as well as the estimated impacts of the system completion. The Italian case study is of particular interest since along the 1,467 km of new high-speed line (300 km/h), a combination of major cities distances and a unique HSR competitive market, producing prices reductions and more daily trains, brought a 200% increase of HSR demand (from 15 to 45 million passengers/year). Estimations results show that, on average, HSR in Italy has significantly transformed travel patterns and accessibility across the regions, highlighting both the benefits and challenges of integrating HSR into the broader transport system.