Locational Marginal Pricing for Adaptive Robust Look-Ahead Dispatch with Causal Affine Recourse

This paper develops a marginal pricing mechanism for adaptive robust look-ahead economic dispatch (LAED) under net-load uncertainty. In current market practice, deterministic multi-interval dispatch can misprice flexibility when forecast error is large. Fully adaptive robust (FAR) dispatch captures this uncertainty, but competing worst-case trajectories can imply different marginal values of demand, leaving no single price for market settlement. We propose causal affine recourse (CAR) as a tractable, price-forming approximation. CAR replaces independently optimized trajectory-specific schedules with a causal affine response policy, yielding a market-clearing model that retains the standard energy and congestion decomposition of DC Locational Marginal Pricing. We then demonstrate that CAR-LMP together with a ramp-adjusted current settlement supports dispatch-following and eliminates current-period lost opportunity costs. We solve the CAR problem by deriving a robust counterpart and present computational evidence on exact small DC instances, a ten-generator system, and an IEEE 300-bus public-network case. These simulations show that the proposed prices collapse exactly to deterministic LAED-LMP when robustness is inactive, remain stable in loose-ramp regimes, and produce economically meaningful price shifts when flexibility is scarce. The proposed pricing mechanism provides a practical bridge between adaptive robust dispatch and market-based pricing.