Applying Learning Curves to Modeling Future Coal and Gas Power Generation Technologies

Coal and natural gas have and will likely continue to be key components of the world energy supply for years to come. The objective of this study is to evaluate emerging technologies for power generation from coal and gas and forecast their performance using a Power Technology Futures Model (PTFM) based on learning curves methodology. The methodology involves creating a model to assess the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from various power generation technologies including supercritical pulverized coal combustion and natural gas combustion as well as advanced alternatives such as integrated gasification combined cycle and carbon capture technologies. Results from the model indicate significant challenges in achieving a 50% reduction in annual CO2 production by 2050, even with substantial R&D investments and carbon pricing strategies. This model serves as a useful tool for planners and policy makers to visualize and communicate the impact of technology investments on future energy generation pathways.