J. Müller, H.E. Frimmel
Gold production at an industrial scale developed with the discovery of gold in Australia and the USA in the middle of the 19th century. Since then, the gold production rose exponentially at a rate of approximately 2.0%, reflecting a first-order production cycle. Within this rise, four individual sub-cycles can be identified. The current sub-cycle is predicted to lead from a peak in 2001 of 2,600 tons to a global production of 1,600 tons in 2018 or even as little as 780 tons in 2026. Further analysis of these sub-cycles, along with considerations of declining ore grades and energetic constraints, suggest that the year 2001 could indeed be the peak-gold year of the main 'Hubbert-style' production cycle. The application of the Hubbert Linearization indicates a cumulative achievable gold production of between 230,000 and 280,000 tons, which aligns with a minimum of about 285,000 tons of combined past production and known reserves and resources.
@article{318f28cc-78ff-44d9-9dde-95447f43ebad,
title={Numerical Analysis of Historic Gold Prod},
author={J. Müller and H.E. Frimmel},
year={2026},
language={en}
}TY - JOUR TI - Numerical Analysis of Historic Gold Prod AU - J. Müller AU - H.E. Frimmel PY - 2026 LA - en ER -
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