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Coupled analysis of landslide risk in open pit min

袁利伟, 王跃辉

2026en滑坡风险N–K 模型BN 模型滑坡风险耦合分析风险因素强度

Abstract

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本研究针对现有滑坡风险耦合分析方法在露天矿滑坡风险因素定量表征及耦合关系分析方面的不足，提出了一种结合N–K模型和贝叶斯网络（BN）模型的风险耦合分析新方法。通过分析51起滑坡事故案例，识别出直接原因并总结风险因素，包括人因、环境因素、机械设备因素和管理因素。研究首先构建了N-K模型，以探讨这些风险因素之间的耦合关系和机制。接着，将N-K模型的计算结果与BN模型结合，进行了滑坡风险的正向分析。结果表明，导致露天矿滑坡事故的风险耦合类型以“人-环境-管理”的组合概率最高，达到37.32%；而“人-环境-设备-管理”的组合风险值则为0.26，发生率为29.60%。因此，研究建议应重点控制环境和管理风险因素，以防止它们的联合作用和连锁效应，从而降低露天矿滑坡事故的发生率.

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Cite This Work

@article{5d1df2ac-2de7-4777-b0da-06ab1de055bd,
  title={Coupled analysis of landslide risk in open pit min},
  author={袁利伟 and 王跃辉},
  year={2026},
  language={en}
}
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Coupled analysis of landslide risk in open pit min
AU  - 袁利伟
AU  - 王跃辉
PY  - 2026
LA  - en
ER  -

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