Risk Identification and Prioritization in Hospital Construction Projects in Disaster-Prone Areas: A Contractor-Based Probability–Impact Matrix Approach

Hospital construction projects in disaster-prone areas face heightened complexity due to strict functional requirements, advanced systems, and elevated environmental uncertainties. This study focuses on identifying and prioritizing construction-phase risks from the contractor’s perspective using a Probability–Impact Matrix (PIM) approach. The research was conducted as a qualitative case study on the CT Arsa Hospital project in Palu City, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, a region with high seismic and environmental hazard exposure. Data were collected through structured and semi-structured questionnaires with experienced project managers, site engineers, and construction supervisors, followed by expert validation of identified risks. Semi-quantitative probability–impact assessments revealed that the most critical risks involve delays in material procurement, shortages of skilled labor, design changes during construction, extreme weather conditions, and site-related technical uncertainties. These risks fall predominantly into high and very high-risk categories, indicating substantial potential impacts on project schedule, cost, and safety performance. The findings demonstrate that the contractor-based PIM approach offers a practical and transparent framework for prioritizing construction risks under conditions of uncertainty and limited historical data.