An Integrated Life Cycle Assessment and System Dynamics Model for

Since the building sector accounts for more than one third of global carbon emissions, it is imperative that the sector mitigate its emissions to help reach the goal of the COP26 climate conference of achieving a global net zero by mid-century. Building refurbishment (BR) is key to reducing carbon emissions in the building sector by reducing the operational energy consumption of existing buildings instead of demolishing them and building new ones. China is a good example of a country encouraging refurbishment, since it has prioritized BR in its 14th Five-Year Building Energy Efficiency and Green Building Development Plan (2021-2025). Since the number of BR projects in China is therefore likely to significantly increase in the coming years, it is important to evaluate the carbon emissions associated with construction and demolition (C&D) waste to find optimal waste management solutions. However, there are no studies that have considered the carbon emissions of C&D waste management of BR projects from a whole life cycle perspective. This study fills the research gap by developing a novel LCA-SD model, which integrates the features of life cycle assessment (LCA) and system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the carbon emissions of C&D waste management of BR projects through non-linear and dynamic analysis from a whole life cycle perspective.