Risk Model of Long-Term Production Scheduling in Open Pit Gold Mining

Open pit gold mining is a critical sector in the Australian mining industry, characterized by significant investments necessitating efficient management amidst considerable uncertainty. This paper presents a risk model specifically designed for long-term production scheduling in open pit gold mines, built on full discounted cash flow analysis (DCFA). The model incorporates all stochastic variables within the DCFA that contribute to mining project uncertainties, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the risk associated with not meeting planned discounted profits at various cash flow discretization points. Additionally, it provides risk estimates relevant to mine investments over the payback period, which are particularly crucial for investors. A case study is included to demonstrate the practical application of the developed model, addressing the importance of quantitative risk assessment in decision-making processes for sustainable resource exploitation.