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Developing a risk based cost contingency

Fahad Saud Allahaim, Li Liu

2026encost overruninfrastructure projectsrisk-based estimationcost contingencycause classificationproject management

Abstract

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Cost overrun on infrastructure projects is widespread and represents significant financial risks to stakeholders. The large number of possible causes makes the planning and management of projects challenging. A survey of 160 project managers of infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia was conducted to elicit the cost overrun causes. After cluster analysis, the causes were reduced to four dimensions: scope changes, market and regulatory, inadequate planning and control, and unforeseen circumstances. These four dimensions were then used to develop a risk-based cost contingency estimation model (RBCCEM) to improve the accuracy of cost forecasting and then validated using a bootstrapping approach. The accuracy of cost estimation measures was used to compare RBCCEM with fixed cost contingency (10%), reference class forecasting (RCF P50 & P90), and hybrid (it is a combination of RBCCEM & RCF P50). The comparison suggested that the RBCCEM could be more accurate as the error decreased by 10%. Therefore, by considering the actual impact of cost risk of similar projects, the results show that cost contingency was improved and the model delivered a better result compared to RCF.

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Cite This Work

@article{80f6e8d5-4d30-4cb1-99bd-3147810d9cd1,
  title={Developing a risk based cost contingency},
  author={Fahad Saud Allahaim and Li Liu},
  year={2026},
  language={en}
}
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Developing a risk based cost contingency
AU  - Fahad Saud Allahaim
AU  - Li Liu
PY  - 2026
LA  - en
ER  -

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