Potential effects of obliquity change on

Methane hydrate dissociation due to obliquity-driven temperature change has been suggested as a potential source of atmospheric methane plumes recently observed on Mars. This work uses both equilibrium and time-dependent models to determine how geothermal gradients change on Mars as a result of obliquity and predict how these changes affect gas hydrate stability zones (HSZs). The models predict that the depth to the HSZ decreases with increasing latitude for both CO2 and CH4 hydrate, with CO2 hydrate occurring at shallower depths than CH4 hydrate over all latitudes. The depth of the HSZ increases as surface temperatures warm and decreases as surface temperatures cool with changing obliquity, with the largest change in HSZ volume predicted near the equator and the poles. Therefore, changes in the depth to the HSZ may cause hydrate dissociation near the equator and poles as the geothermal gradient moves in and out of the hydrate stability field over hundreds of thousands of years. Sublimation of overlying ice containing diffused methane could account for recent observations of seasonal methane plumes on Mars. In addition, near-surface gas hydrate reservoirs may be preserved at mid-latitudes due to minimal changes in surface temperature with obliquity over geologic time scales. Comparisons of the predicted changes in the HSZ with hydrate dissociation and diffusion rates reveal that metastable hydrate may also remain in the near subsurface, especially at high latitudes, for millions to billions of years. The presence of methane hydrate in the near subsurface at midlatitudes could be an important analytical target for future Mars missions, as well as serving as a source of fuel for future spacecraft.