Minerals 2026, 16, 216

The growing global demand for mineral resources is challenging mining operations to maintain productivity while processing lower-grade ores and increasingly complex deposits. This study presents an integrated framework that leverages machine learning (ML) and high-fidelity simulation to model and support scenario-based decision-making for the blasting–crushing–SAG milling chain using a calibrated flowsheet. Using publicly available data from the Barrick Cortez Mine (Nevada, USA), more than three million operational scenarios were generated using the Integrated Extraction Simulator (IES) to capture system variability and sensitivity. Machine learning meta-models, built using Random Forest and XGBoost methods, were trained on the simulated data and achieved coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.90 across all key outputs, including P20, P50, P80, and mass flow rates at different operational stages. The meta-models accurately reproduced plant-scale behaviour while reducing computational requirements by several orders of magnitude compared with full-scale simulations. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis revealed that blast-hole diameter, explosive energy parameters, screen cut-size, crusher feed characteristics, and SAG mill operating conditions are the dominant factors impacting downstream particle size distributions. The proposed framework enables near-real-time evaluation of “what-if” operational scenarios and provides transparent, quantitative decision-support for integrated mine-to-mill optimisation.